Analysed to 2026-07-25 · household of 3, 1 dependent(s) · mortgage
Monthly surplus
2 122,23
CZK
Buffer
5,53
months of essentials
Cash balance
247 019,72
CZK
Essentials
44 708,77
CZK a month
Findings
▲ High
A 200bp policy rate rise erodes this household's monthly surplus
Extend the mortgage fixation past the shock horizon, or build the cash buffer toward three months of non-discretionary spend before the current fixation ends.
Evidence
base monthly surplusmetrics.cashflow
2122.23 CZK
stressed monthly surplusscenario rate_shock_200bp
-838.59 CZK
rate channelscenario rate_shock_200bp
-3166.67 CZK/month
rate-sensitive debtscenario rate_shock_200bp
3800000.00 CZK
rate deltascenario rate_shock_200bp
0.02
repricing fractionscenario rate_shock_200bp
0.5
deposit channelscenario rate_shock_200bp
205.85 CZK/month
cash balancescenario rate_shock_200bp
247019.72 CZK
deposit rate deltascenario rate_shock_200bp
0.01
buffer monthsmetrics.resilience
5.53
● Medium
Cash buffer is thin against a loss of primary income
Size the emergency fund to at least six months of non-discretionary spend. A single income stream carries no internal diversification, so the buffer is the only cushion.
Evidence
cash balancemetrics.resilience
247019.72 CZK
monthly non-discretionary spendmetrics.cashflow
44708.77 CZK
stressed runwayscenario income_stop
5.38 months
income concentrationmetrics.resilience
1.0000
Scenarios
Policy rate rises 200bp over twelve months
rate-3 166,67
deposit205,85
Net monthly effect-2 960,82
Buffer covers the full 12-month horizon, drawing down 838,59 CZK a month.
Primary income stops for three months
income_stop-48 000,00
Net monthly effect-48 000,00
Buffer covers the full 3-month horizon, drawing down 45 877,77 CZK a month.
Household energy prices rise 40% over twelve months
energy-880,00
Net monthly effect-880,00
No depletion - the stressed position stays net positive.
reduces monthly surplusincreases monthly surplus
Not evaluated
Every rule had the inputs it needed.
Provenance
Macro snapshot as of 2026-08-03.
Sources
cnb_2w_repo=0.0375 as of 2026-06-19 (CNB two-week repo rate, 3.75% effective 2026-06-19, https://www.cnb.cz/en/monetary-policy/instruments/)
cz_deposit_rate_savings=0.0149 as of 2026-08-03 (CNB MFI interest rate statistics, household overnight deposits 1.49%, https://www.cnb.cz/en/statistics/money_and_banking_stat/harm_stat_data/commentary-on-mfi-interest-rates/index.html)
cz_household_electricity_cpi_yoy=0.967 as of 2026-01-31 (CZSO, household electricity consumer price index 96.7% year-on-year for January 2026 excluding the POZE fee cancellation, https://csu.gov.cz/note-to-consumer-prices-of-energy-january-2026)
eur_czk=24.205 as of 2026-08-03 (CNB daily FX fixing, https://api.cnb.cz/cnbapi/exrates/daily)